<\/div>\n

TS\u0130 20:00\u2019de dolar\/TL\u2019de aktif kotasyon ge\u00e7erken, kur da 7.70\u2019e dayand\u0131. Yar\u0131n PPK\u2019y\u0131 toplayarak faiz karar\u0131n\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131klayacak olan TCMB, ve para politikas\u0131nda en az onun kadar etkinli\u011fe kavu\u015fan BDDK sessiz.\u00a0 Piyasalardaki tedirginlik global cepheden ba\u015fl\u0131yor. Avrupa borsalar\u0131 bug\u00fcn olumlu gelen \u00f6nc\u00fc PMI anketi sayesinde tutunurken DJ30 ve S&P500 %0.3 ve %0.7 de\u011fer yitiriyorlar. T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin de dahil oldu\u011fu Geli\u015fmekte Olan \u00dclkeler\u2019de Latin Amerika FX Endeksi dolara kar\u015f\u0131 %2 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcyor. Dolar 8 haftan\u0131n zirvesinde ki, bu da TL\u2019de g\u00f6zledi\u011fimiz \u00e7\u00f6k\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn \u00f6nemli nedenlerinden biri.<\/p>\n

Uzmanlar ve yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar TL\u2019den de\u011fil, Ankara\u2019n\u0131n d\u00f6rt ba\u015f\u0131 mamur bir ekonomik politikaya d\u00f6nece\u011finden umudu kesmi\u015f g\u00f6z\u00fck\u00fcyorlar.\u00a0 Capital Economics y\u0131lsonu dolar\/TL tahminini 8.00\u2019a, 2021 sonu i\u00e7in 9.25\u2019e yukar\u0131 revize etti.<\/p>\n

Ekonomist Jason Tuvey, T\u00fcrkiye\u2019de d\u00f6viz krizi olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n alt\u0131n\u0131 \u00e7izerken, TCMB\u2019nin radikal faiz art\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131na zorlanaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6ne s\u00fcrd\u00fc.<\/p>\n

International Institute of Finance GOP mali piyasalar direkt\u00f6r\u00fc Ugras Ulku\u00a0 22 Eyl\u00fcl\u2019de meslekta\u015f\u0131 Benjamin Hilgenstock\u2019la ortakla\u015fa yazd\u0131\u011f\u0131 bir notta, T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin y\u00fckselen d\u0131\u015f finansman ihtiyac\u0131na vurgu yapt\u0131. IIF\u2019e g\u00f6re sene sonunda cari a\u00e7\u0131k milli gelirin %3.8\u2019e y\u00fckselecek.<\/p>\n

Dr Fulya G\u00fcrb\u00fcz sitemizde yay\u0131nlanan \u201cKur-Enflasyon a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131 darald\u0131k\u00e7a rezervler azal\u0131yorsa \u00e7are tersinde\u201d ba\u015fl\u0131kl\u0131 makalesinde ks\u0131a ve \u00f6z konu\u015ftu:<\/p>\n

\u201c\u00d6zetlersek, Hazine\u2019nin hazinedarl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 yapan Merkez Bankas\u0131n\u0131n kasas\u0131nda, gelecek 12 ayl\u0131k d\u00f6nemde kamu ve Merkez Bankas\u0131n\u0131n \u00f6demek zorunda oldu\u011fu toplam d\u0131\u015f borcu kar\u015f\u0131layacak d\u00f6viz rezervi yok\u201d.<\/p>\n

Sozcu.com.tr\u2019ye konu\u015fan Ata Portf\u00f6y Genel M\u00fcd\u00fcr\u00fc Mehmet Gerz, Yunanistan ile T\u00fcrkiye aras\u0131nda Do\u011fu Akdeniz konusunda g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelerin ba\u015flayaca\u011f\u0131na d\u00f6n\u00fck haberlerin olumlu olabilece\u011fini ancak ba\u015fka sorunlar oldu\u011funa dikkat \u00e7ekmi\u015fti.<\/p>\n

Jeopolitik risklerdeki azalman\u0131n k\u0131sa vadede olumlu olabilece\u011fini belirten Mehmet Gerz, \u201cAncak T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin tek sorunu bu de\u011fil. D\u00f6viz kuru ve enflasyon beklentileri y\u00fckseliyor. Kredi notumuzu tarihteki en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyeye indiren Moody\u2019s raporunda \u00f6nemli uyar\u0131lar var\u201d a\u00e7\u0131klamas\u0131nda bulunmu\u015ftu.<\/p>\n

Commerzbank FX uzman\u0131 Antje Praefcke \u201c\u00c7ok a\u00e7\u0131k bir bi\u00e7imde piyasalar TCMB\u2019nin pozitif reel faize d\u00f6nmesini talep ediyor\u201d dedi. Antje Praefcke de ani bir d\u00f6viz \u015fokundan kayg\u0131 duyuyor. \u00a0Blue Bay Varl\u0131k Y\u00f6netimi stratejisti Tim Ash ise twitter\u2019de 7.70\u2019i k\u0131ran dolar\/TL\u2019nin 8.00\u2019a y\u00fckselebilece\u011fini kaydederken, TCMB\u2019nin yar\u0131n en az\u0131ndan Ge\u00e7 Likidite Penceresi Faizini y\u00fckseltmesi gerekti\u011fini beyan etti.<\/p>\n

TCMB\u2019nin yar\u0131n kaderle randevusu var.\u00a0 TL\u2019de istikrar i\u00e7in \u00f6n\u015fart Ba\u015fkan Erdo\u011fan\u2019\u0131n faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 i\u00e7in TCMB\u2019yi serbest b\u0131rakmas\u0131. E\u011fer TL istikrar kazanacaksa, \u00f6nce yerli birikim sahibinin mevduat\u0131n\u0131 TL\u2019de tutmaya ikna edilmesi laz\u0131m. Bunun i\u00e7in asgari politika faizi %15\u2019tir.\u00a0 E\u011fer Erdo\u011fan TCMB\u2019ye bu esnekli\u011fi tan\u0131m\u0131yorsa, Ge\u00e7 Likidite Penceresi tavan faizinin %15\u2019e y\u00fckseltilmesi de \u00e7alkant\u0131y\u0131 bast\u0131rabilir.<\/p>\n

Ard\u0131ndan, BDDK\u2019n\u0131n Varl\u0131k Rasyosu\u2019nu revize ederek kredi vermeyen bankalara cezay\u0131 kald\u0131rmas\u0131 ve TCMB\u2019nin \u00e7ok h\u0131zl\u0131 \u015fekilde bankalara verdi\u011fi likiditeyi k\u0131sarak piyasada dol\u015fan serseri paran\u0131n d\u00f6vize ka\u00e7mas\u0131n\u0131 engellemesi \u015fart. Son, fakat en ak\u0131lc\u0131 \u00e7are, s\u0131cak paray\u0131 kovmak gibi mant\u0131k d\u0131\u015f\u0131 ideolojik fikirlerden vazge\u00e7ip, yabanc\u0131 sermayeye kollar\u0131m\u0131z\u0131 a\u00e7t\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131z\u0131 sinyallemek olur. Bunun en basit yolu da bankalar\u0131n Londra\u2019da yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 swap i\u015flemlerine konulan k\u0131s\u0131tlamalar\u0131n kald\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131 olur.<\/p>\n

Ne yaz\u0131k ki, bu noktada art\u0131k bedelsiz politika tercihi kalmad\u0131. IIF Ba\u015fekonomisti Robin Brooks biraz \u00f6nce att\u0131\u011f\u0131 tweet\u2019te \u201cKredi furyas\u0131 yat\u0131\u015fmadan TL istikrar kazanamaz. Bunun bedeli de resesyon olacak\u201d yorumunu yapt\u0131.<\/p>\n

Dr G\u00fcrb\u00fcz:\u00a0 Kur-Enflasyon a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131 darald\u0131k\u00e7a rezervler azal\u0131yorsa \u00e7are tersinde <\/p>\n

F\u00d6\u015e anlatt\u0131:\u00a0 Ekonomide Kaderle Randevu Haftas\u0131<\/p>\n

YORUM: \u201c\u00dcst Ak\u0131l\u201ddan faizi art\u0131r komplosu<\/p>\n

Mehmet Tezkan: Dolar neden f\u0131rlad\u0131?<\/p>\n<\/p>\n

Para Analiz<\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

TS\u0130 20:00\u2019de dolar\/TL\u2019de aktif kotasyon ge\u00e7erken, kur da 7.70\u2019e dayand\u0131. Yar\u0131n PPK\u2019y\u0131 toplayarak faiz karar\u0131n\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131klayacak olan TCMB, ve para …<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":2132,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[6],"tags":[33,49,125,216],"class_list":["post-2131","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-doviz","tag-dolar","tag-doviz","tag-faiz","tag-turkiye"],"yoast_head":"\n