<\/div>\n
![](\"https:\/\/www.paraanaliz.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/07\/resim-1.png\"\/)
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\u2013<\/strong> Temkinli pay tercihlerimizi koruyoruz. Son iki ayd\u0131r artan global enflasyon kayg\u0131lar\u0131na, Haziran sonlar\u0131nda turizmdeki toparlanman\u0131n gecikebilece\u011fi riski de eklenince borsan\u0131n \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki ay g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc al\u0131m istikametinde hareket etmesi epeyce g\u00fc\u00e7 g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor. Buna kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k BIST-100 endeksinin son devirde 1.400 puan\u0131n alt\u0131na yerle\u015fmesi ABD\u2019den ba\u015flayacak m\u00fcmk\u00fcn bir sat\u0131\u015f dalgas\u0131nda a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 istikametli risklerin g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc olabilece\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor. Geride b\u0131rakt\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131z ay kimya, g\u00fcbre, demir-\u00e7elik paylar\u0131 ba\u015fta olmak \u00fczere genel bir sat\u0131\u015f bask\u0131s\u0131 hissedilirken, banka ve telekom paylar\u0131 nispeten g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc kald\u0131. BIST-100\u2019de yaln\u0131zca 16 pay\u0131n bedeli ayl\u0131k bazda artt\u0131. Bilhassa yurtd\u0131\u015f\u0131 kaynakl\u0131 risklerin g\u00fc\u00e7lendi\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyor ve Temmuz ay\u0131nda temkinli bir pay stratejisi izlenmesini \u00f6neriyoruz. D\u00fczeltme sonras\u0131 demir\/\u00e7elik ve emtia y\u00fckl\u00fc paylar daha kuvvetli g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor. Bankalar uzun m\u00fcddettir iskontolu s\u00fcre\u00e7 g\u00f6rd\u00fcklerinden nispeten diren\u00e7li kalma baht\u0131na sahipler. Primli paylarda ise habere dayal\u0131 k\u00e2r sat\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131n s\u00fcrebilece\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz.<\/p>\n\u2013<\/strong> Portf\u00f6y\u00fcm\u00fcze Ford Otosan\u2019\u0131 y\u0131l\u0131n ikinci yar\u0131s\u0131nda yakalayaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcm\u00fcz g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc ihracat performans\u0131, Pegasus\u2019u seyahat k\u0131s\u0131tlamalar\u0131ndaki gev\u015femelerle yolcu say\u0131lar\u0131nda bekledi\u011fimiz toparlamay\u0131 ve Yap\u0131 Kredi Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131 ise iskontolu fiyat\u0131n\u0131n k\u00e2r beklentilerini yans\u0131tmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 niyetiyle ekliyoruz.<\/p>\n\u2013<\/strong> Geriye d\u00f6n\u00fck zay\u0131f pay performans\u0131 portf\u00f6yden \u00e7\u0131karma kriterlerini tetikledi\u011fi i\u00e7in Petkim\u2019i \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131yoruz.<\/p>\n![](\"https:\/\/www.paraanaliz.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/07\/resim-2.png\"\/)
<\/p>\n
\u2013<\/strong> Haziran ay\u0131 portf\u00f6y kayb\u0131m\u0131z BIST-100\u2019den az. En son g\u00fcncelleme yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131z 1 Haziran ile 30 Haziran ortas\u0131nda portf\u00f6y ziyan\u0131m\u0131z %2,9 oldu, lakin t\u0131pk\u0131 devirde BIST-100 %5,3 geriledi\u011finden, endekse nazaran daha iyi performans sa\u011flad\u0131k. Portf\u00f6ye ARD Yaz\u0131l\u0131m, Garanti Bankas\u0131 en \u00e7ok katk\u0131y\u0131 sa\u011flarken Petkim getiriyi en \u00e7ok a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 \u00e7eken pay oldu.<\/p>\n\u2013<\/strong> Bu sonucun akabinde model portf\u00f6y\u00fcm\u00fcz\u00fcn (yay\u0131nlanmaya ba\u015fland\u0131\u011f\u0131 204 ba\u015f\u0131ndan bu yana) toplam getirisi %437 oldu. Birebir periyotta BIST toplam getiri endeki ise %150 kar sa\u011flad\u0131. Buna nazaran portf\u00f6y\u00fcm\u00fcz\u00fcn g\u00f6sterge endeksin %115 \u00fczerinde getirisi oldu\u011fu g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. BIST100 toplam getiri endeksi pay fiyatlar\u0131 temett\u00fc \u00f6demeleri i\u00e7in d\u00fczeltilerek hesaplan\u0131yor.<\/p>\n*<\/strong> Borsa\u2019da ivme kayb\u0131 barizle\u015fti. Haziran ay\u0131 pay senedi getirileri, evvelki aya k\u0131yasla t\u00fcm d\u00fcnyada zay\u0131f kald\u0131. SP500, Eurostoxx ve MSCI-GO\u00dc endeksleri %2, %0 ve -%1 de\u011fi\u015fim g\u00f6sterirken, BIST-100 dolar baz\u0131nda May\u0131s\u2019taki %16\u2019l\u0131k kayb\u0131n akabinde, Haziran\u2019da da %7 d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc. G\u00fc\u00e7lenen enflasyon tasalar\u0131 GO\u00dc\u2019ler ortas\u0131nda petrol ihracat\u00e7\u0131s\u0131 Rusya ve Brezilya\u2019y\u0131 \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kard\u0131. T\u00fcrkiye ise y\u0131l ba\u015f\u0131ndan bu yana en y\u00fcksek bedel kayb\u0131 ya\u015fayan GO\u00dc olmaya devam etti.<\/p>\n*<\/strong> Turizmde ve enflasyonda toparlanma temas\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7 kaybediyor. Haziran ba\u015f\u0131ndaki strateji raporumuzda global enflasyon bask\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n TL varl\u0131klar i\u00e7in zorluklar\u0131 art\u0131rd\u0131\u011f\u0131na dikkat \u00e7ekmi\u015f, fakat baz senaryomuzu ihracat ve turizm gelirlerindeki ivmelenmenin ekonomiyi rahatlataca\u011f\u0131 ve enflasyonu son \u00e7eyrekten itibaren geriletece\u011fi varsay\u0131m\u0131na dayand\u0131rm\u0131\u015ft\u0131k. S\u00fcratli a\u015f\u0131lama temposu ve d\u00fc\u015fen Covid-19 olaylar\u0131 bu beklentiyi desteklese de Haziran\u2019\u0131n ikinci yar\u0131s\u0131nda yeni Covid-19 varyant\u0131n\u0131n tasa verici halde yay\u0131lmas\u0131 ve petrol fiyat art\u0131\u015f\u0131 iyimserli\u011fin g\u00fc\u00e7lenmesini engelledi.<\/p>\n*<\/strong> Yerli yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131 ilgisi azald\u0131, halka arzlar yava\u015flad\u0131. Nisan\u2019da 2020 ba\u015f\u0131na nazaran iki kat\u0131n \u00fczerinde artarak 2,7 milyona ula\u015fan yerli pay senedi yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131s\u0131 uzunca bir m\u00fchletin akabinde birinci defa May\u0131s\u2019ta geriledi. Lakin ortalama portf\u00f6y b\u00fcy\u00fckl\u00fck de\u011fi\u015fimine bakt\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131zda kapanan hesaplar\u0131n daha \u00e7ok halka arz m\u00fcracaat\u0131na d\u00f6n\u00fck oldu\u011fu g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. \u0130lgi azal\u0131nca, Haziran\u2019\u0131n ikinci yar\u0131s\u0131ndan itibaren halka arzlar da besbelli bi\u00e7imde yava\u015flad\u0131. Bununla birlikte y\u0131lba\u015f\u0131ndan bu yana 11,5 milyar TL\u2019ye ula\u015fan halka arz hacmi borsa tarihinde bir rekor.<\/p>\n*<\/strong> Yatay seyir s\u00fcre\u00e7 hacminde d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fc getirdi. Beklentilerin zay\u0131f kalmas\u0131 BIST-100\u2019\u00fcn Mart\u2019tan sonra 1.450\u2019nin alt\u0131nda yatay bant hareketine girmesine yol a\u00e7t\u0131. Buna ba\u011fl\u0131 olarak Ocak\u2019ta 46 milyar TL\u2019ye yakla\u015fan g\u00fcnl\u00fck ortalama s\u00fcre\u00e7 hacmi de Haziran\u2019da 19 milyar TL\u2019ye kadar d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc (2020 Nisan\u2019\u0131ndan sonraki en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviye).<\/p>\n*<\/strong> 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k tahvil faizindeki d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f kal\u0131c\u0131 olacak m\u0131? May\u0131s ay\u0131 prestijiyle %38\u2019e ula\u015fan \u00fcretici fiyat enflasyonu yaz boyunca T\u00dcFE\u2019nin %17\u2019nin alt\u0131na gelmesini g\u00fc\u00e7le\u015ftiriyor. Haziran ba\u015f\u0131nda %19\u2019a kadar y\u00fckselen 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k tahvil faizi ay\u0131n sonlar\u0131nda %17,0 \u2013 %17,5 aral\u0131\u011f\u0131na gerilemi\u015f olsa da, enflasyon riski faizde kal\u0131c\u0131 d\u00fczelmeye \u015fimdilik m\u00fcsaade vermeyecek \u00fczere g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor. Bilhassa kurda yeni bir hareketlenme artan risk primi ve enflasyon g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fc kanal\u0131ndan pay senedi fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131 tekrar bask\u0131layabilir.<\/p>\n*<\/strong> \u0130hracat\u00e7\u0131 \u015firketler tekrar \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor. Haziran\u2019da emtia rallisinin s\u00fcrat kesmesiyle demir\/\u00e7elik ve petrokimya dal\u0131 paylar\u0131nda sert k\u00e2r sat\u0131\u015flar\u0131 oldu. Buna ra\u011fmen banka ve telekom paylar\u0131 ayl\u0131k bazda bir nebze diren\u00e7li kald\u0131. Ay\u0131n birinci yar\u0131s\u0131nda k\u0131ymetlenen havayolu \u015firketleri ise \u00e7\u0131karlar\u0131n\u0131 Haziran\u2019\u0131n ikinci yar\u0131s\u0131nda geri verdi. Y\u0131lba\u015f\u0131na nazaran performansta mali dal, perakende ve g\u00fc\u00e7 b\u00f6l\u00fcm\u00fc paylar\u0131 zay\u0131f kalmay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fcyor. Havac\u0131l\u0131k paylar\u0131nda bask\u0131 Covid-19\u2019un seyrine ba\u011fl\u0131 olarak Temmuz\u2019da da s\u00fcrebilir. Bilhassa kur ve enflasyon risklerinin devam etti\u011fi dikkate al\u0131n\u0131rsa ihracat\u00e7\u0131 \u015firketlerin yat\u0131r\u0131m a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan daha inan\u00e7l\u0131 buluyoruz. Bu kapsamda demir\/\u00e7elik paylar\u0131nda de bir toparlanma olabilir. Tabandan toparlanma sinyali veren bankalarda da bu e\u011filim s\u00fcrebilir.<\/p>\n![](\"https:\/\/www.paraanaliz.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/07\/resim-3.png\"\/)
<\/p>\n
Yasal \u0130htar<\/strong><\/p>\nBurada yer alan yat\u0131r\u0131m bilgi, yorum ve tavsiyeleri yat\u0131r\u0131m dan\u0131\u015fmanl\u0131\u011f\u0131 kapsam\u0131nda de\u011fildir. Yat\u0131r\u0131m dan\u0131\u015fmanl\u0131\u011f\u0131 hizmeti; arac\u0131 kurumlar, portf\u00f6y idare \u015firketleri, mevduat kabul etmeyen bankalar ile m\u00fc\u015fteri ortas\u0131nda imzalanacak yat\u0131r\u0131m dan\u0131\u015fmanl\u0131\u011f\u0131 mukavelesi \u00e7er\u00e7evesinde sunulmaktad\u0131r. Burada yer alan yorum ve tavsiyeler, yorum ve tavsiyede bulunanlar\u0131n \u015fahs\u00ee g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015flerine dayanmaktad\u0131r. Bu g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fler mali durumunuz ile risk ve getiri tercihlerinize uygun olmayabilir. Bu nedenle, yaln\u0131zca burada yer alan bilgilere dayan\u0131larak yat\u0131r\u0131m karar\u0131 verilmesi beklentilerinize uygun sonu\u00e7lar do\u011furmayabilir.<\/p>\n
Ak Yat\u0131r\u0131m<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/p>\nPara Tahlil<\/span><\/p>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
\u2013 Temkinli pay tercihlerimizi koruyoruz. Son iki ayd\u0131r artan global enflasyon kayg\u0131lar\u0131na, Haziran sonlar\u0131nda turizmdeki toparlanman\u0131n …<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":12319,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[2],"tags":[992,37,72,798,43],"class_list":["post-12318","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-borsa","tag-guc","tag-haziran","tag-hisse","tag-portfoy","tag-yatirim"],"yoast_head":"\n
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